What the statewide pattern says
Three vulnerable geologies
Wisconsin's higher nitrate is concentrated in three geologies — northeastern dolomite karst, the irrigated Central Sands, and Driftless fractured carbonate — and in the dolomite country the water often carries bacteria along with the nitrate.
Three Wisconsin geologies do most of the work: the fractured Silurian dolomite along Lake Michigan, the sandy Central Sands, and the Driftless karst of the southwest — the same creviced-limestone belt that crosses into northeast Iowa (Nolan and Hitt, 2006).
In the northeastern dolomite, the deciding factor is how shallow the bedrock sits. Where thin soil covers fractured rock, manure and fertilizer nitrogen reach the aquifer with little to stop them. The landmark Kewaunee County study sampled 624 private wells and found roughly a quarter to a third contaminated with nitrate or bacteria — with depth-to-bedrock and nearby agricultural land, not well construction or septic systems, the dominant risk factors (Borchardt and others, 2021). A companion microbial source-tracking study in the same aquifer traced contamination to both cattle and human sources (Environmental Health Perspectives, 2021).
The Central Sands are the opposite texture with the same result: coarse, oxygen-rich sand under irrigated vegetables lets nitrate move down and persist, because the low-oxygen conditions that would break it down are absent (Dubrovsky and others, 2010). The supported source reading is agricultural — manure-heavy in the dairy karst, fertilizer-heavy in the irrigated sands — not a certified source at any individual system.
One caution about the public-system map: in the northeastern dolomite counties, much of the population drinks from private wells, so few public systems exist there to count. The map's footprint — south-central and central counties — understates the karst problem precisely where the private-well literature says it is worst.