What the statewide pattern says
A documented agricultural hotspot, and a second suburban setting
New Jersey's Coastal Plain nitrate is among the best-documented agricultural signals in the country; the northwest's fractured-rock counties add a septic-and-sprawl setting that is studied less but reported clearly.
The Coastal Plain story is unusually well measured. Sampling 230 shallow wells across the Kirkwood-Cohansey and Potomac-Raritan-Magothy outcrops, USGS found nitrate above the 10 mg/L federal limit in more than a third of wells in agricultural areas, with concentration rising almost one-to-one with the share of farmed land within 800 meters (r = 0.81). Isotope ratios pointed to chemical fertilizer, not livestock or septic, in those farmed areas (Vowinkel and Tapper, 1995).
The trend runs the wrong direction and takes decades to unwind. Modeling the Kirkwood-Cohansey near Glassboro, USGS estimated that nitrate in aquifer recharge rose from a background of about 0.07 mg/L in 1940 to 2.5–14 mg/L by 1990; even if inputs stopped, elevated concentrations would persist in streams and wells for decades because of travel time, though roughly 40 percent of the nitrogen is removed by denitrification near streams (Kauffman and others, 2001). Cumberland County, one of the highlighted counties on this page, sits in that Coastal Plain farm belt.
The second setting is the northwest — Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon and Morris — fractured-rock Highlands and Ridge-and-Valley terrain where suburban development runs on individual wells and septic systems. The nitrate literature there is thinner than on the Coastal Plain, so this page does not claim a certified source for those counties; the public-system readings mark the signal, and the plumbing — dense septic on fractured rock — supplies the plausible pathway (Nolan and Hitt, 2006).
The supported source reading is agricultural fertilizer on the Coastal Plain; mixed septic and lawn nitrogen in the fractured-rock northwest — not a certified source at any individual system. Later work on nitrogen moving toward Barnegat Bay keeps both readings in play (Voronin and Cauller, 2017).