What the statewide pattern says
Mostly low, on karst that deserves respect
Missouri's public systems run low — but the Ozark karst beneath the southern half of the state is exactly the terrain where surface nitrogen can reach groundwater fast, and private wells there are the population to watch.
The baseline numbers are low, and USGS measured them directly. Across the Ozark Plateaus, median nitrate ran about 0.3 mg/L in Ozark-aquifer wells and 0.5 mg/L in its springs; the shallower Springfield Plateau aquifer ran higher at about 1.0 mg/L in wells and 2.6 mg/L in springs — and confined parts of both aquifers ran lower than unconfined parts (USGS Circular 1158).
Public-supply wells check out clean at the state level: in a USGS–state survey of southern Missouri public-supply wells, no measured constituent exceeded Missouri’s drinking-water standards, with the bootheel differing chemically from the Ozark groups (USGS Water-Resources Investigations Report 00-4260).
What the low public-system numbers do not cover is the karst hazard itself. Karst features across the Springfield and Salem Plateaus connect surface water and groundwater directly, and Ozark spring water shows it: nitrate in springs of the upper White River basin has been measured at 13 times the level of the more forested Current River basin, attributed to greater population and livestock density (USGS Professional Paper 1414-D). So the honest Missouri reading is: low typical values on vulnerable terrain.
The supported source reading is agricultural and on-site wastewater nitrogen where the karst is unconfined — not a certified source at any individual system, and in most of the state a potential pattern rather than a measured public-system one (Nolan and Hitt, 2006).