What the statewide pattern says
Fine till keeps most of the state low; two geologies concentrate the risk
Most of Minnesota is glaciated with fine till, where groundwater nitrate stays low. The risk concentrates where coarse sand or fractured carbonate lets surface nitrogen through — and the public-system map tracks the state's intensively farmed south.
Two Minnesota geologies do most of the work. The Central Sands — coarse, oxygen-rich glacial outwash under irrigated row crops and potatoes — let nitrate move down and persist, because there is too little oxygen-poor, carbon-rich material to break it down (Nolan and Hitt, 2006). The second is the southeastern karst, the creviced-carbonate country of the Driftless Area, where sinkholes and springs give surface nitrogen near-direct access to groundwater — the same belt as northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
The public-system map adds a third, data-first observation: the higher-band systems gather in the farm counties of the south and southwest — Nobles, Lincoln, Lyon and Pipestone among them — shallow glacial aquifers under intensive row crop and livestock. That is consistent with where the state's own monitoring concentrates: the Minnesota Department of Agriculture's Township Testing Program and Central Sands Private Well Network sample exactly these vulnerable farm regions, and find exceedances concentrated there rather than spread evenly across the state.
Elsewhere, the fine-till and tile-drained areas send their nitrate to surface water instead of down into wells, the familiar Corn Belt split. The supported source reading is agricultural — row-crop and livestock nitrogen on permeable or karst ground — not a certified source at any individual system. Underneath it all, the same slow travel times mean today's groundwater reflects yesterday's farming (Dubrovsky and others, 2010).