What the statewide pattern says
A karst aquifer with the surface wide open
Florida's higher nitrate is a karst story: across the north half of the peninsula the Floridan aquifer is unconfined, and decades of fertilizer nitrogen applied to pastures, citrus and lawns now discharge in its springs.
The Floridan is one of the world's most productive aquifers, and across the north half of the Florida peninsula it is unconfined — rain and everything dissolved in it can reach the aquifer through sinkholes and sandy soils in days to years. Natural background nitrate in Florida springs runs below about 0.01 mg/L, so almost any measurable nitrate in spring water is anthropogenic (Southwest Florida Water Management District).
The source reading in the springs is fertilizer-first. USGS work in the Silver Springs basin found median nitrate of about 1.15 mg/L in urban-area wells and about 1.7 mg/L in agricultural-area wells, with isotope signatures pointing to inorganic fertilizer mixed with septic and wastewater sources (Phelps, 2004). The state’s springs monitoring network reads the same mix: inorganic fertilizer applied to pastures, lawns and citrus — much of it applied decades ago — with on-site wastewater as the secondary source (Florida DEP, 2010).
The map on this page follows that footprint: Hillsborough, Marion, Pasco, Polk and Lake counties sit inside the Southwest Florida Water Management District’s springs country, where the aquifer is shallow and the time lag from surface to spring is short enough that land use shows up directly in groundwater.
The supported source reading is fertilizer nitrogen, with on-site wastewater secondary, on an unconfined karst aquifer — not a certified source at any individual system. That is the same land-use-plus-fast-pathway combination the national vulnerability work ties to high nitrate (Nolan and Hitt, 2006).