What the statewide pattern says
A basin-fill pattern, with a desert nuance
Arizona's higher nitrate tracks its basin-fill aquifers where irrigated agriculture and urban growth load nitrogen over deep alluvial fill — with Pinal County's irrigated corridor at the center — while parts of the desert carry a natural background worth knowing about.
Arizona's aquifers are deep basin fill between mountain ranges, and USGS's Southwest-wide assessment found nitrate at or above the federal limit in about 11 percent of basin-fill samples, with predicted exceedance tracking how much of the land above is developed for agriculture or urban use — rising to nearly half where the land is fully developed (Beisner, Anning and others, USGS SIM 3234). Fertilizer and livestock manure are the named sources in agricultural settings (Nolan and Hitt, 2006).
The map's center of gravity — Pinal County, between Phoenix and Tucson — is the state's irrigated-cotton and dairy corridor, where decades of heavy irrigation have left a legacy nitrate load in the vadose zone that continues to reach groundwater even as surface practices change (Arizona DEQ, Pinal Active Management Area). Maricopa and Pima add the urban fringe: fertilizer, reclaimed-water irrigation, and septic on the same basin fill.
One nuance is distinctly Arizonan: across parts of the Sonoran Desert, nitrate between 2 and 5 mg/L appears to be natural — nitrogen fixed by desert legumes over undisturbed basin fill — so a modest reading there is not automatically a human fingerprint (USGS SIM 3234). The supported source reading is agricultural and urban nitrogen on basin fill, against a locally elevated natural desert background — not a certified source at any individual system. Arizona basin-fill also carries geogenic arsenic and uranium, so the co-occurrence caution applies (Dubrovsky and others, 2010).